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Strategy

Inflation Higher Than Predicted in June

Officials are split as to how long it will last.

U.S. consumer prices increased more than expected in June, the highest year-over-year surge since August 2008. The Labor Department reported on July 13 that the consumer price index, which analyzes the cost of goods and services in major sectors, rose 5.4% when compared to June 2020. Experts had expected a rise of 5%.

Core prices increased 0.9% from 0.6% in May, the largest month-to-month escalation since June 2008.

Food and energy prices were up 0.8% and 1.5% respectively. Without those notoriously volatile sectors, the price index rose by 4.5%, the highest since September 1991. Experts had estimated the number would be about 3.8%. About a third of the climb was made up of a 10.5% expansion in cost for used cars and trucks. Cost of gasoline also surged 2.5% in June, while shelter increased 2.6%.

“What this really shows is inflation pressures remain more acute than appreciated and are going to be with us for a longer period,” Sarah House, senior economist for Wells Fargo’s corporate and investment bank, told CNBC. “We are seeing areas where there’s going to be ongoing inflation pressure even after we get past some of those acute price hikes in a handful of sectors.”

Analysts say the across-the-board increase is due to three primary factors: supply chain disruption, high demand for goods and services as COVID abates, and a comparison to early last summer when the economy was struggling in the throes of the pandemic.

There’s been ongoing discussion as to how long inflation will last. Officials at the Federal Reserve and in the White House have said they expect it to ease over the next few months, but this most recent report shows that in some sectors, inflation “likely has staying power,” said House. “That’s going to make some folks nervous.”

A report from the Federal Reserve released last Friday reiterated that officials there believe inflation is temporary and will recede as supply chain bottlenecks ease. Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak before House and Senate panels this week.

Inflation has been affecting promo directly as well, as firms continue to contend with rising costs in everything from containers to materials to shipping just as end-buyer demand increases. Companies expect the inflation to last at least through the end of the year and the worst may come in the beginning of next year.

“We’re seeing an increase in costs from products or components made in China because of currency fluctuations,” Dilip Bhavnani, chief operating officer at Top 40 supplier Sunscope (asi/90075), told ASI Media recently, and Jing Rong, vice president of global supply chain and compliance at Top 40 supplier HPG (asi/61966), added that “rising raw material costs and currency exchange rate pressure is driving cost inflation.”