The volatility and the “whiplash” in the global economy has been the worst part.

That’s what economist Alex Chausovsky, director of analytics and consulting for advisory firm Bundy Group, imparted to the crowd during his presentation at ThreadX 2025, a conference for apparel print shop pros from MADE Laboratories that was held in Sundance, UT June 6-8.

Still, in his talk, Chausovsky said there’s ample opportunity to thrive. He shared on subjects that included the purchasing power and economic might of different countries compared to the U.S., economic factors affecting the economy on a macro scale, and intangibles like how consumer sentiment impacts business. Through it all, Chausovsky honed in on a few key points that he hoped would stick with the audience, mostly made up of apparel decorators, manufacturers, suppliers and distributors.

“It’s going to feel like a firehose,” he warned playfully. Here were some key points of emphasis:

The U.S. Remains the World's Dominant Economic Power

Chausovky’s first assertion, which he explained sets a neat backdrop for understanding other economic factors both globally and domestically, runs counter to the popular narrative that the U.S. economy is being “usurped” on a global scale as the lead decision-maker and power wielder.

“You can see the U.S. as a $30 trillion economy this year,” Chausovsky said. “This is by far the largest in the world. So we remain firmly perched at the top of the economic pyramid.”

He turned his attention to China, being the country that most people jump to when they think of global economies growing to compete with the U.S.

“They have seen amazing growth over the last two decades, and even with that in mind, theirs is still less than $20 trillion,” he said. “The Chinese economy today is one third smaller than what the U.S. economy is. So there is no immediate risk, and in my view, no medium- or long-term risk that the Chinese economy overtakes the U.S. for the number-one economy in the world.”

Alex Chausovsky demonstrated the global economic picture and how the U.S. fits into it amid narratives of “takeover” from other countries.

That notion, he believes, is what drives the Trump administration to pursue its global tariffs, as it seeks to maintain strong  U.S. influence on the global stage while working to establish advantageous trade deals.

Raising Prices & Tariff Impact

The issue, of course, is that the tariffs and related price increases do have very real effects on businesses in the promo apparel space.

Amid the tariffs, price increases have pretty much dominated the conversation among distributors and suppliers, as the cost of importing products and materials affects their bottom line. The debate is often whether to absorb the higher charges for products or to pass it down the line to the end-buyer.

Chausovsky recommended that businesses try to avoid a binary decision: Raise prices or not raise prices. Instead, take a look at your customers and think about where you should raise prices and how.

“If you feel like you need to do a price increase, what I’ve seen to be very effective is to look at your core customer base, the ones that generate the volume for you, and leave their prices largely unchanged but use surcharges,” he said. “Then increase prices for the long tail of low-volume, kind of one-off customers. Don’t just blanket respond to all of this.”

Those surcharges, he said, could be marketed as temporary. In the current landscape, this would mostly be seen as understandable and just an unfortunate necessity of doing business right now. But, the promise would be that they would disappear as things return to something more “normal.”

“If you feel like you need to do a price increase, what I’ve seen to be very effective is to look at your core customer base, the ones that generate the volume for you, and leave their prices largely unchanged but use surcharges.”Alex Chausovsky, director of analytics and consulting, Bundy Group

Chausovsky also looked toward the July 9 date when freezes on higher nation-specific tariff rates the Trump administration has dubbed reciprocal would end. Regardless of whether the higher rates go into effect or if a lower baseline import rate is kept, or if another scenario occurs, there will be relief for businesses, Chausovsky said. That’s because in his view, one variable should disappear: Uncertainty.

“Even if we do have the 10% global tariff remain in place, the American companies can start to adapt,” he said. “Ten percent is doable, it’s workable. Yes, it will push inflation up somewhat, but once we know what policy looks like, then we can start to adjust. It is the volatility and uncertainty around this policy that is the major problem right now.”

Chausovsky admitted that some customers would likely push back on price increases but asserted that the most important factor to pay attention to going forward is not revenue, but profit.

“You are not in the business, ladies and gentlemen, to drive revenue growth, contrary to popular belief,” he said. “You’re in business to make a profit. And that’s what we have to focus on this year – protecting margins, making sure that that remains in an area where you’re happy. Because it is your profit that drives future company performance and growth. That’s where investment comes from. So, less focus on revenue, more focus on profit.”

Harnessing Leading Indicators To Eliminate Uncertainty

If uncertainty and volatility are the enemies, Chausovsky said that business owners should use the power of leading indicators and data to come as close as possible to seeing their businesses’ futures.

Using two data points representing a purchasing manager’s index and average sales by account over a 10-year span from Printavo, Chausovsky demonstrated how leading indicators from previously reported data can align with business trends and help you forecast. By establishing a relationship between these two variables, he demonstrated how they align and provide a view into what likely comes next.

Chausovsky used 10 years of year-over-year sales and PMI to demonstrate how businesses can leverage leading indicators to influence future decisions.

“This is not a forecast, this is not a guess, it’s not a prediction,” he said. “This has already happened. Think about the implications of this from a decision-making perspective.”

He pointed to one point on the chart and asked the audience to imagine they were a company seeing 6% in year-over-year sales growth.

“What does that mean from a decision-making perspective?” he asked. “It means that you likely want to invest more in your business – hire more people, expand production capacity, hold more inventory and so on. But if you know a year from now that your growth is going to be zero, that is actually the wrong thing to be doing. You want to be defensive, you want to be conservative, you don’t want to commit to long-term expenses if you know your growth is going to be decelerating. Leveraging leading indicators like this can certainly impact your decision-making up to a year in advance.”

“You are not in the business, ladies and gentlemen, to drive revenue growth, contrary to popular belief. You’re in business to make a profit. And that’s what we have to focus on this year – protecting margins, making sure that that remains in an area where you’re happy.” Alex Chausovsky, director of analytics and consulting, Bundy Group

Chausovsky said that pros across apparel, printing and promo need to have their detailed scenarios planned out in advance. This means understanding the potential price increases from tariffs, and other economic factors like potential interest rate changes from the Federal Reserve.

“You have to have a knowledgeable, workable plan for a variety of different scenarios,” Chausovsky said. “So then you’re not responding to developments. You already know in advance, and you can actually implement those plans being the first out of the gate and, as such, have a significant competitive advantage for your business.”

Controlling What You Can

A lot rests on uncontrollable variables. Business owners can’t control interest rates affecting customers’ purchasing power or tariffs creating price increases. Chausovsky admits that, even when harnessing all of the data in the world to create an image that he believes will closely resemble what will actually happen in the near future.

One thing you can control, he said, is your communication.

“How frequently are you communicating both down to your customer base and up to your supply chain?” he asked. “If it’s currently once every six months, make it quarterly. If it’s every quarter, make it monthly. The more touch points, the more information sharing you can provide each other, the more of a moat you’re building around your business that entrenches that relationship. So, increase the amount of communication, volunteer information before you ask for some, and that dialogue is going to be very beneficial long term.”

Chausovsky showed how retail apparel trends show promising growth.

From the business-owner perspective, Chausovsky underscored the importance of retaining talent, too.

“Competitive pay is absolutely key to retention,” he said. “You can’t afford to lose your people. Make sure that you’re paying a competitive wage.”

Finally, looking forward, he again relied on the relatively high level of predictability in the economy when asked about the prospect of another “Great Depression” that could hit in 2030.

While first clarifying that the use of “Great Depression” verbiage is sensationalist and evokes images of food lines and mass unemployment, he said that, yes, there would likely be a downturn around that time because “we are due for one” in that window of time. But, citing the uptick after the 2008 crash – the closest parallel in reality – he presented a sunnier picture than the one from 1929.

“If you think about 2009 … think about what the smart money was doing: They were buying,” he said. “Businesses, equities, houses, property, all of the assets. Fast-forward to now, 15 years from that point, and where are those asset classes today? Way higher, right? So, unless your timeline, your horizon for investment, is five years and then you’re looking to retire, I’m looking at that as an area of, ‘OK, how can I make sure that I have as little debt as humanly possible, deployable liquid capital that I can put to work during that period, and then create generational wealth on the backside of it?’”

He cited the current situation in Japan, where growth has stagnated but it’s, in his words, “not Great Depression vibes in Japan right now.”

“I get that it’s in the category of sensationalism,” he said. “Fear-driven marketing and that kind of stuff. I don’t think it holds up to scrutiny when you talk about the details of it. So I look at it as an opportunity, and I think most of you in the room should be doing the same.”