The hope was that a Supreme Court ruling would give more clarity about the future of tariffs.

But after the highest court in the nation struck down President Trump’s enactment of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), suppliers and distributors across promo are left with more questions than answers.

For Craig Nadel, the president and CEO of Counselor Top 40 distributor Nadel (asi/279600) and a member of Counselor’s Power 50 list of most influential people in promo, there’s an overwhelming sense of uncertainty around what comes next.

“If these rules were set and clear, people could work around them,” Nadel says. “But when they’re changing all the time, it’s more difficult. The uncertainty is an issue for almost every business.”

Here, Counselor recaps the latest shifts in the tariff landscape, how suppliers and distributors are handling these changes, and what promo companies need to know if they’re hoping for refunds on tariffs they’ve already paid.

What We Know So Far

On Friday, the Supreme Court ruled that President Trump didn’t have legal authority to enact many of the tariffs he implemented over the last year. The ruling applies to the barrage of reciprocal tariffs Trump imposed on nearly all countries last year, as well as higher, “trafficked” tariffs on countries including Canada, Mexico and China. (Trump justified those latter tariffs by tying them to the flow of illegal drugs, including fentanyl, into the U.S., which is why they were labeled “trafficked” tariffs.)

This means that, as of Tuesday, February 24, importers are no longer required to make payments to U.S. Customs and Border Protection on goods entering the country under the IEEPA tariffs.

The ruling applies to most of Trump’s tariffs, but several tariffs issued under other justifications remain intact. For example, importers will still be required to pay the 25% steel and aluminum tariff imposed under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, which gives the president power to restrict imports that threaten national security.

As expected, the Trump administration pivoted to other justifications to impose new global tariffs. Shortly after the Supreme Court ruling, the White House issued a proclamation imposing a temporary 10% tariff on imports from most countries using Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which gives the president power to impose temporary import duties to address balance-of-payments deficits. He threatened to increase this figure to 15%, the maximum under Section 122, though the White House has not formalized that increase, nor has it released a timeline for doing so.

The 10% global tariffs took effect Tuesday, but will only be active for 150 days, at which time they will be subject to congressional authorization. The new tariffs include several product exemptions that mirror many of the goods exempt from the IEEPA tariffs, including but not limited to certain electronics and textile and apparel products that entered duty-free under CAFTA-DR. This means that the baseline tariff rate on key promo hubs like India and China will go down for the time being.

However, it’s difficult to say what will happen after those 150 days because there isn’t a clear statute to compare it to.

“We don’t have a lot of case law around this,” Kevin Williams, an attorney and member of the International Trade Group at law firm Clark Hill, tells Counselor. “It is possible that Congress could authorize an extension after those 150 days, but the chance of this Congress doing that is remote.”

Business as Usual – At Least for Now

The temporary nature of these levies means that when it comes to tariffs and the promo industry, planning ahead remains difficult.

“The new global tariffs, while currently positioned as temporary, reinforce the reality that uncertainty will continue – and that’s something our clients don’t love,” says Chris McKee, chief revenue officer at Counselor Top 40 distributor Geiger (asi/202900).

CJ Schmidt, president of Counselor Top 40 supplier Hit Promotional Products (asi/61125) and a Counselor 50 member, added that the Supreme Court ruling underscores the importance of diversification.

“I encourage folks to have multiple countries they’re sourcing from on commoditized products,” he says. “It’s important to have a backup plan.”

Schmidt says that he expects the biggest impact on Hit’s direct import division and decoration services out of China and other parts of Southeast Asia, though the specific business implications remain to be seen.

Heather Smartt, global head of Counselor Top 40 supplier Goldstar (asi/73295) and a member of Counselor’s Power 50 list of most influential people in promo, has faced similar challenges trying to plan ahead in an environment where tariffs are constantly changing.

“This is just another reminder that uncertainty is the norm now,” Smartt says. “Clients will continue to be cautious with budgets, and it’s still unclear how long this will last. Planning long term remains challenging, especially with a potential global tariff still on the table. It’s a game of Whac-A-Mole these days, but staying nimble is key.”

Smartt added that she expects to see a short-term surge in overseas orderswhile businesses look to take advantage of the lower tariff rate on key promo hubs, but that Goldstar’s strategy will stay the same. The Supreme Court ruling has brought the baseline rate on China down to 10%, though it’s unclear how long this lower rate will last before Trump implements additional tariffs using another justification.

“We’ll continue to diversify our vendor portfolio and plan for the unknown,” she says. “Nearshoring will remain a focus, and we’ll keep modeling different scenarios. Overall, our strategy remains consistent.”

“The new global tariffs, while currently positioned as temporary, reinforce the reality that uncertainty will continue – and that’s something our clients don’t love.” Chris McKee, Geiger (asi/202900)

McKee added that while Geiger doesn’t plan to make any meaningful changes as a result of the ruling, the decision justifies many of the adjustments the firm has made over the last year.

“Our strategy has already evolved to emphasize supplier diversification, sourcing flexibility and transparency with clients,” he explains. “If anything, this reinforces the importance of diversification – geographically, across suppliers and in how we help clients plan programs. The adjustment is less about reacting to a single ruling and more about continuing to operate in an environment where policy can change quickly.”

On the supplier side, pricing is unlikely to change – at least for the time being.

Daniel Oas, CEO of High Caliber Line (HCL, asi/43442), is not planning price increases as a result of the tariff ruling.

“It’s just business as usual for a while,” he says. “I have no intention of raising prices, and actually lowered prices a few weeks ago after doing an item-by-item analysis.”

The Path to a Potential Refund

Despite an overarching sense of uncertainty, businesses are eager to recoup the money they lost from tariffs. One of the biggest questions coming out of last week’s Supreme Court ruling is whether businesses will receive these refunds – and what the process will look like.

“Businesses should file a case with the Court of International Trade now. The cost to kick that off isn’t significant, and that gets you teed up in court sooner rather than later.” Kevin Williams, International Trade Group at Clark Hill

“The nature of the ruling indicates that the government should refund tariffs that importers paid, but that’s where things get fuzzy because the Supreme Court didn’t say anything about refunds,” Williams of Clark Hill explains, adding that this omission isn’t unusual since refunds don’t typically fall under the Supreme Court’s jurisdiction.

“Now, the case will work its way back down to the Court of International Trade, which will determine what needs to be done next,” Williams says. “Previous similar cases indicate that the court and government will require importers to make a claim against the government, then follow a claims process. The government doesn’t just hand out money. They want you to jump through some sort of hoop.”

While there hasn’t been much direction on refund next steps, Williams recommends businesses take a proactive approach.

“Businesses should file a case with the Court of International Trade now,” he advises. “The cost to kick that off isn’t significant, and that gets you teed up in court sooner rather than later. The cost you’re incurring is not significant compared to the money you’ll get back.”

But when it comes to the refunds, many suppliers and distributors are less than optimistic. And some are unsure if the time and effort is worth the return.

“I think [the refund process] is going to be a mess, and there are billions of dollars on the line,” says Oas, who has been working with HCL’s purchasing manager to get a refund. “If we’re able to get the refund, we will, but it’s a whole lot of work.”

Schmidt isn’t sure the effort required to obtain a potential refund is worth the hassle.

“It’s not a route we’re looking to go down,” he says. “It would likely be held up in local court, and it’s not worth the time and energy.”

Chris Faris, founder and CEO of Boost Promotions (asi/142942), a distributor based out of Beverly, MA, says he doesn’t plan to seek out a refund until he has a bit more clarity.

“When it’s clear what’s going to happen, then we’ll do that accordingly. But I think [the refund process] is going to be even more of a mess than the actual tariffs were themselves,” he says.

Still, Faris recommends continuing to plan ahead and leading with transparency during these uncertain times. His team is constantly updating a tariff tracker and communicating with clients when key policies and changes occur.

“There are always going to be external events,” he says. “As long as we don’t overreact and we are very transparent with our clients, stay true to our business ethics and be honest about the situation, we’ll be OK. At the end of the day, it all comes down to Business 101.”