The United States economy likely grew at an annualized rate of more than 4% during the final quarter of 2020, according to forecasts from economists.

Official numbers on the U.S.’s Q4 gross domestic product (GDP) are due from the U.S. Department of Commerce on Thursday, Jan. 28. Economists polled by the Dow Jones/Wall Street Journal collectively predict a 4.1% rise, while Yahoo! Finance reported that the consensus forecast from economists put the increase at about at 4.2%.

“Expectations have been lowered marginally on the back of weaker consumer spending numbers and falling employment in December, but we should still expect a 4%+ growth figure,” James Knightley, ING chief international economist, wrote in a note issued Friday, Jan. 22.

The anticipated fourth-quarter growth would come after a third quarter in which GDP accelerated at an annualized rate of 33.1%. Despite those surges, the U.S. economy fell off a cliff in Q2 amid the first massive wave of COVID-19 shutdowns, plunging 31.4%. As such, the economy remains off the pace of its pre-pandemic levels. And now, there are headwinds blowing for Q1 2021.

“We are more worried about Q1 given the loss of economic momentum following the latest COVID spikes and the reintroduction of containment measures in many areas,” Knightley said. Even so, promotional products distributors are finding ways to navigate the challenges of Q1, something you can learn more about in this podcast.

Hey #promoproducts pros: If you want to make Q1 a success, then give this podcast a listen. It has strategies direct from real distributors who had strong 2020s and are engineering great Q1's: https://t.co/uBP62vLBgc

— Chris Ruvo (@ChrisR_ASI) January 25, 2021

Despite the first quarter’s hurdles, the overall economic outlook for 2021 is trending up, according to some forecasts.

The U.S. economy will grow at an estimated annual rate of 3.5% in 2021, while worldwide GDP will expand 4% this year, according to World Bank Group, a Washington, D.C.-based international financial institution that provides loans and grants to the governments of low- and middle-income countries.

Released in January, the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report estimates that U.S. GDP fell 3.6% year-over-year in 2020 compared to 2019. Last year, the global economy declined 4.3%.

“It’s a very dark and difficult winter, but there’s light at the end of the tunnel,” Gita Gopinath, chief economist at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), told CNBC. “In terms of the outlook, what’s true as of now is that we’re starting out the year at a somewhat stronger point than we had expected, which is a good thing. But right now, it’s a race between the virus and the vaccine.”

The IMF, a Washington, D.C.-based international organization that works to foster global monetary cooperation and secure financial stability, just released a forecast that indicates that global growth will be 5.5% in 2020. The IMF estimated that U.S. economic growth will tally 5.1%.