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News February 27, 2019

Survey: Consumer Confidence Rebounds In February

It’s good news for the promotional products market, as dampening sentiment can signal economic headwinds that could impact the industry.

By  Christopher Ruvo

The end of the partial federal government shutdown, more stability in stocks and reported progress in trade talks with China were among the factors that helped U.S. consumer confidence rebound strongly in February.

Following three straight months of declines, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index sprang to 131.4, up from 121.7 in January. The performance outpaced the forecasts of economists:

The Present Situation Index, which tracks consumers’ feelings about current business and labor market conditions, improved more than three points month-over-month to 173.5. Measuring Americans’ outlook for income, business and labor market conditions, the Expectations Index soared skyward in February, jumping from 89.4 in January to 103.4 this month.

The upshot is that the American economy appears to remain strong – a positive sign for the promo industry.

Researched by Nielsen, The Conference Board’s monthly Consumer Confidence Survey is closely watched, as consumer spending makes up nearly 70% of the U.S. economy. Declines in current confidence or outlook can potentially signal deteriorating economic conditions.

The survey found that consumers who feel business conditions are “good” increased from 36.4% in January to 41.2% in February, while those saying business conditions are “bad” was unchanged at 10.8%. Meanwhile, those stating jobs are “plentiful” decreased slightly from 46.7% to 46.1%, but that occurred as the percentage of folks claiming jobs are “hard to get” also decreased, from 12.6% to 11.8%.

In February, there was also improving optimism on business conditions for much of 2019. “The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions will improve over the next six months increased from 16.3% to 19.7%, while those expecting business conditions will worsen decreased from 13.8% to 8.9%,” according to survey results.

Furthermore, in February,18.5% of consumers said they expect more jobs in the months ahead. That compares to 15.3% who said the same in January. Those anticipating fewer jobs declined, from 16.2% to 12.2%. “Regarding their short-term income prospects, the percentage of consumers expecting an improvement rose from 17.7% to 20%, but the proportion expecting a decrease also increased, from 6.8% to 8.5%,” the Conference Board said.