International trade between the U.S. and sub-Saharan Africa is about to look a lot different.

After 25 years, the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) expires this week. For the last two-and-a-half decades, the agreement has provided nonreciprocal, duty-free access to U.S. goods produced in designated sub-Saharan African countries. It’s a trade deal that has directly influenced how and where some promo apparel companies source their products. According to a report released by the U.S. Trade Representative, 2023 U.S. imports under AGOA totaled $9.7 billion, with apparel accounting for over $1 billion.

But that could all change now that the deal’s expiration date has passed. An end to AGOA, against the backdrop of rising tariffs on global goods, will reframe how promo companies do business in the continent.

$1 Billion
U.S. apparel imports under AGOA in 2023 (2024 Biennial Report on the Implementation of the African Growth and Opportunity Act)

A Brief History

AGOA dates back to the year 2000, when the Clinton administration signed it into law. The goal of this piece of legislation was twofold: Improve trade relations between the U.S. and Africa, and help grow the economy across sub-Saharan Africa’s local villages and communities, many of which have historically struggled to obtain economic prosperity through participation in global trade.

More than two decades later, the trade agreement is on its last leg.

The deal was last renewed in 2015, setting the expiration for this year. Since then, attempts to extend the deal further have proven unsuccessful. In 2024, Senators Chris Coons (D-Delaware) and James Risch (R-Idaho) introduced a bipartisan bill that pushed for an extension to the program through 2041, but it didn’t pass – even though it had the full support of former President Joe Biden.

“I am committed to expeditiously working with Congress and our African partners to renew this law beyond 2025 in order to deepen trade relations between our countries, advance regional integration and realize Africa’s immense economic potential for our mutual benefit,” said the former president in a November 2023 statement. “In so many ways, Africa is the future – and so when Africa succeeds, the whole world succeeds.”

Rigorous Requirements for Global Trade Participation

To qualify for AGOA, sub-Saharan countries must remain in good standing on the global stage. According to the requirements listed on the Office of the United States Trade Representative website, countries must “establish or make continual progress toward establishing a market-based economy, the rule of law, political pluralism and the right to due process.” They must also work to “eliminate barriers to U.S. trade and investment, enact policies to reduce poverty, combat corruption and protect human rights.”

As of February 2025, 32 sub-Saharan African countries were eligible for AGOA. But once countries get approval, they must work to keep it. The U.S. government regularly assesses countries for compliance, and several have been terminated from the agreement. In 2023 alone, Biden announced the termination of four sub-Saharan African countries: Gabon and Niger for what Ambassador Katherine Tai referred to in a statement as “unconstitutional changes of government.” Meanwhile, Central African Republic and Uganda were terminated for violations of internationally recognized human rights.

According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection, over 5,200 tariffed items are eligible for these benefits. To qualify, goods must be wholly or sufficiently manufactured from an AGOA-eligible country. In other words, the products need to meet one of two eligibility measures: A) they were grown, fished, mined or similarly obtained, or B) they have undergone a substantial transformation. At least 35% of the good’s value must be added in the beneficiary country and up to 15% can be attributed to inputs in the U.S. The good must be directly imported without involving a third party or intermediary in the transaction.

Despite widespread uncertainty about an extension of AGOA, African leaders remain optimistic. Earlier this month, trade representatives and textile industry leaders from across the continent made their case on Capitol Hill. It makes sense, considering how much they have to lose once the deal expires for good. According to a report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, some 300,000 jobs and as many as 1 million indirect jobs could disappear once the deal expires.

What Comes Next

Now, with a new administration in office and sweeping tariffs impacting trade in sub-Saharan Africa and beyond, the fate of AGOA is unclear. South Africa was hit with a 30% tariff, while other AGOA beneficiaries including Nigeria, Chad and Namibia face 15% levies. President Donald Trump has stayed mostly silent about his stance on AGOA, but a White House official said Tuesday that the administration supports a one-year extension of the agreement (though the president has yet to make an official announcement). But such an extension is a far cry from the 16-year extension Coons and Risch initially proposed, and it may not be enough to attract new investments to the region.

Suppliers who manufacture in the region are intimately familiar with many of these challenges. Counselor Top 40 supplier SanMar (asi/84863), the largest supplier in the promo industry, opened a factory in Tanzania in 2009. Melissa Nelson, general counsel for SanMar, testified before the Senate Finance Committee in June 2024, where she detailed the factory’s influence on economic growth in the region. (SanMar declined to comment on this story.)

“The transformation has been remarkable, but it would not have happened without the African Growth and Opportunity Act creating the incentive for SanMar to move production from China to Tanzania,” Nelson told ASI Media last year.

The supplier credited AGOA with allowing it to provide customers with quality and cost-effective apparel, Nelson said in her testimony.

But with a looming expiration and no signs of a significant extension, SanMar has been weary of increasing its investment in the region. Last year, Nelson noted this lack of clarity as a missed opportunity. “Staring down the expiration date has put any potential investments on hold for the past few years,” she said in a previous ASI Media report. “And we are missing an incredible window of opportunity. There is so much potential in manufacturing expansion and vertical integration, but companies are hesitant to invest when the benefits of AGOA could expire before a return on investment.”

“One thing Africa has an abundance of is resilience, and adaptability is part of the culture. Change will always be a constant.”Ian Bentley, Parker Clay

The impact of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs and the potential expiration of AGOA is uncharted territory for many of today’s suppliers, and SanMar is erring on the side of caution by taking steps to move a large percentage of manufacturing elsewhere. Jeremy Lott, the company’s president/CEO and a member of Counselor’s Power 50 List, remarked at a recent industry event that once AGOA expires, the products that SanMar manufactures in Africa could increase in price by almost a third. Lott said SanMar is now looking to source in Haiti and Mexico, and has identified additional opportunities in Jordan and Egypt.

But amid all this uncertainty, one thing is clear: SanMar doesn’t plan to manufacture the majority of its products in the U.S. anytime soon. (The supplier has recently opened a new distribution center in Hanover, VA, that company officials said will be its largest facility and operation.)

“It is exceptionally hard to build apparel capacity and scale in the United States today,” said Lott, whose company once owned a small factory in Tennessee, at ThreadX 2025. “I don’t see any world where we reshore a significant portion of apparel manufacturing.”

Other promo industry suppliers, like Ian Bentley of premium leather goods company Parker Clay, believe there’s a business case for staying in the sub-Saharan Africa region. When Bentley and his family lived in Ethiopia, they heard a common refrain from the people living there: “We don’t want handouts; we want job opportunities.”

Bentley founded the company along with his wife Brittany with the goal of bringing quality products into the world while creating jobs that empower women. Ethiopia’s capital city of Addis Ababa has an unemployment rate of over 20%.

Ethiopia was a top beneficiary of AGOA until 2022, when it lost its privileges due to what the Biden administration deemed human rights violations amid growing conflict in Northern Ethiopia.

However, when Ethiopia was terminated from the deal, Parker Clay continued to operate in the region – and doesn’t have plans to leave anytime soon. Parker Clay has a retail presence in addition to its wholesale and corporate gifting channels, and Bentley says the company didn’t feel the hit as significantly as a smaller business might. Doing the right thing, Bentley says, pays off when customers are looking for sustainable, well-made goods. “If you create a great product,” he says, “people will want to continue supporting your business.”

The people in Ethiopia have also taught him an important lesson – one that he’s applied to his business during times of uncertainty.

“One thing Africa has an abundance of is resilience, and adaptability is part of the culture,” he says. “Change will always be a constant.”