News March 17, 2025
Stat Spotlight: A Snapshot of the Economy at the Ides of March
Q1 is nearly complete. President Trump is two months into his second term. How’s the U.S. economy faring? These quick-hit statistics offer insights.
Key Takeaways
• Economic Uncertainty: The start of 2025 has been marked by significant economic uncertainty due to tariffs, trade war concerns, federal government spending cuts and overseas military conflicts.
• Mixed Economic Indicators: While there are positive signs such as job growth, manufacturing sector expansion and relatively stable inflation, there are also worrying signs like a freefalling stock market and consumer sentiment.
• Inflation and Price Indexes: Inflation remains a concern, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) both showing increases above the Federal Reserve’s target, and consumers worried tariffs could send inflation soaring again.
Tariffs, trade war concerns, federal government spending and personnel cuts, uncertainty over the direction of overseas military conflicts and their ripple effects – these factors and others have made for a topsy-turvy start to 2025 for business leaders in the promotional products industry and beyond.
And amid all this, just how is the economy doing so far in 2025? It’s a question worth asking for print and promo product pros, the performance of whose businesses tends to trend in the direction of the broader economy. While there are positive signs like continued job growth, manufacturing sector expansion and relatively stable inflation, there are worrying signs too – including a plummeting stock market and freefalling consumer sentiment. Here, ASI Media shares macroeconomic stats that will help you make sense of it all.
151,000
Number of nonfarm jobs the U.S. economy added in February, which was up from 125,000 in January, but below the 12-month average of 168,000.(U.S. Department of Labor)
4.1%
The U.S. unemployment rate in February. That was up from 4% in January.(U.S. Department of Labor)
Nearly
$6 Trillion
How much value the S&P 1,500 lost between Feb. 19 and March 13.(S&P 1,500, Reuters)
57.9
The mid-March reading on the University of Michigan’s closely watched Survey of Consumers, an index for measuring U.S. consumer sentiment. The tally represented a 10.5% decline from February and was below consensus forecasts of 63.2. The mid-March index reading was down 27.1% on an annual basis and at its lowest level since November 2022.(University of Michigan)
4.9%
Consumers’ 12-month inflation expectation, the highest level since November 2022 and up from 4.3% in February. “The increase, which marked three straight monthly rises of 0.5 percentage points or more, was across all three political affiliations,” which are Republican, Democrat and independent, Reuters noted. Bottom line: Consumers are worried inflation will skyrocket again.(University of Michigan Survey of Consumers)
2.8%
Increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in February 2025 compared to the same month the prior year. That’s above the Federal Reserve’s 2% range but well down from COVID/post-COVID highs above 9% seen in 2022. CPI is an inflation gauge that measures what consumers pay. Month over month (January this year to February), CPI ticked up 0.2%.(U.S. Labor Department)
3.2%
Increase in the Producer Price Index (PPI) in February 2025 compared to February 2024. That’s above the Fed’s 2% goal but below the 3.7% pace in January. PPI is an inflation gauge that essentially measures what’s paid at the wholesale level. In a positive sign, PPI was flat month over month (February 2025 compared to January 2025.)
Two
The number of months in a row (January and February) that economic activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector has expanded, following 26 consecutive months of contraction.(Institute for Supply Management)
48.6
Reading on the New Orders Index of the Institute for Supply Management’s monthly survey of the manufacturing sector. Readings below 50 suggest contraction, meaning despite growth in manufacturing in January and February, the sector could again be facing headwinds.(Institute for Supply Management)
3.1%
Increase in U.S. retail and food services sales in February 2025 compared to February 2024, which outpaced the 2.8% inflation rate as measured by the Consumer Price Index.(U.S. Census Bureau Advance Estimate)
0.2%
Increase in retail and food services sales in February 2025 compared to January 2025. That was better than a decline of 1.2% the prior month but below the Dow Jones estimate for a 0.6% rise.(U.S. Census Bureau Advance Estimate)
Downgraded
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said this week that U.S. gross domestic product will grow 2.2% annually in 2025 and 1.6% year over year in 2026, down from previous forecasts of 2.4% and 2.1%.