What Promo Pros Need To Know About the White-Collar Recession
ASI Media Editors Hannah Rosenberger and Christopher Ruvo offer insights into how the employment phenomenon is impacting the branded merchandise business.
U.S. unemployment rates have remained near historic lows and the economy grew in 2024, but the top-line positive numbers have belied a phenomenon playing out in certain sectors of the economy – namely, hiring slowdowns in industries like finance and tech.
ASI Media Data Analytics Editor Hannah Rosenberger recently penned an in-depth piece on this so-named “white-collar recession” – a report that includes analyzing how it has impacted everything from spend on promotional products to hiring by merch industry firms.
In this Promo Insiders hosted by ASI Media’s Christopher Ruvo, Rosenberger breaks down some of the big takeaways regarding the white-collar recession and the promotional products industry. These are insights that distributors can use when consulting clients – and when aiming to add and keep quality talent at their firms.
Key Takeaways
• Hiring Slowdown in White-Collar Industries: Post-pandemic, there’s been a significant hiring slowdown in sectors like finance, technology and business services. In some cases, hiring rates are comparable to levels seen during the 2009 recession.
• Overhiring & Rebalancing: Companies overhired during the COVID-19 pandemic recovery, especially around 2021-2022. A correction then came, creating a cycle of fewer job openings and more competition among job seekers.
• Shift in Promo Spending: Distributors have noticed some decline in business from white-collar sectors like tech and finance. Certain clients are also spending less on employee onboarding and more on things like appreciation aimed at top executives or prospects/clients.
• Impact on Merch Market Hiring: The white-collar recession has led to a larger talent pool from which distributors and suppliers can hire, allowing industry firms to be more selective.
• Staying Put: Across industries, fewer employees are quitting due to concerns about job security, reducing workforce movement.
• Impact of AI & Ghost Jobs: Artificial intelligence has made it easier for applicants to flood hiring managers with applications, leading to higher rejection rates. Additionally, some companies post “ghost jobs” to appear as if they’re hiring when they have no intention to fill the positions.