Promo Insiders: The Impact of Tariffs, Geopolitical Tension on the Promo Industry
Dr. Mary Kelly, a returning ASI Power Summit speaker, shares her insights on the current state of the economy ahead of her session in Scottsdale, AZ, this month.
It’s important to stay aware and agile.
That’s the overarching message from Dr. Mary Kelly, an internationally renowned economist, U.S. Navy veteran and the CEO of Productive Leaders, a firm dedicated to leadership and economic development. Kelly is a returning speaker at the ASI Power Summit, taking place this month in Scottsdale, AZ. Her session last year on the economy was met with rave reviews from attendees.
While tariffs have been causing anxiety and uncertainty among business owners, Kelly says they’re nothing new. “Anytime you impose a tariff, a tax on an imported good, it makes our trading partners a little cranky,” she says. “What we have to do is reassure our partners that politicians are going to do what politicians do, and we’re going to control what we can control, and that is our business model taking great care of our customers.”
Kelly also cited the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Middle East as major contributors to ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, as well as China-Taiwan tensions – China is building ships at three times the U.S. rate, says Kelly, which means by sheer numbers and force, the U.S. is behind. That’s worrisome.
“What I’m hoping, and I realize hope is not a strategy, is that the business community in China will put enough pressure on the Chinese politicians to not militarily go into Taiwan,” says Kelly. “Taiwan is the home of the big semiconductor producers and a robust trading partner. If China goes into Taiwan, it will create a 10% worldwide drop in GDP that will be damaging to everybody.”
Still, despite the gloom and doom, it’s an opportune time to do a checkup of your business, concluded Kelly. Analyze your client makeup and make adjustments as necessary. “Look at who’s bringing in 80% of your dollars and make sure that the bottom 20% is actually worth your time,” she says. “Now is a super good time to look at your numbers and make sure those numbers are reflective of where you want to be.”
Kelly’s live session on the current state of the economy and geopolitical concerns will take place at the ASI Power Summit, Oct. 12-14 at the Omni Scottsdale Resort & Spa at Montelucia in Scottsdale, AZ. Learn more about the event and register here.
Key Takeaways
• Tariffs are not new – they’ve always been part of trade disputes – but unlike in the past, today they are highly politicized and publicized, which heightens uncertainty. Businesses should focus on maintaining strong personal and professional relationships with trading partners despite political shifts.
• Kelly identifies three ongoing global threats: China, the most pressing concern due to military expansion, ambitions toward Taiwan, and control of global trade and supply chains; Russia, where continued war in Ukraine and increasing military activities in Asia and Europe destabilize alliances and resources; and the Middle East, since escalation after Hamas’ actions in Israel has fueled wider instability involving Iran and attacks on shipping routes.
• Because China is the U.S.’s largest trading partner in key industries (e.g., promotional products, semiconductors, shipping), any disruption in U.S.-China relations, particularly around Taiwan, could cause a global GDP drop. Companies must anticipate ripple effects in supply chains.
Kelly stresses three priorities for companies:
• Diversify suppliers: Don’t rely solely on China; explore other international trade opportunitie
• Increase communication: Leaders should make three daily check-ins (to a supplier, a client and a team member) to reduce uncertainty and strengthen trust.
• Review client portfolios: Focus on the top 80% of revenue drivers and reconsider whether the bottom 20% is worth the investment of time and resources.
• Businesses can’t control politics, but they can control their response: strengthening relationships, stabilizing their business models and reassuring partners and clients. Leaders have a responsibility to provide calm, consistent communication and guidance to reduce anxiety in volatile times.