Promo Insiders: International Trade Negotiations, Supply Chain Destruction & the Legality of Trump’s Tariffs
In this episode of Promo Insiders, international trade and policy expert Babak Hafezi weighs in on what the future of tariffs could mean for promo businesses.
Babak Hafezi has had an exciting few months.
The CEO of Hafezi Capital, a firm that provides international market entry services and trade analysis to Fortune 500 companies, has witnessed firsthand how tariffs are impacting businesses across industries and disrupting the entire supply chain.
“Think about where you manufacture things to how you can get them moved to the country, how it gets designated by the United States and what cost it has in entering the country,” he told ASI Media’s Tara Lerman. “That entire supply chain has been challenged.”
Hafezi, who’s also an adjunct professor of international business at American University, says we haven’t seen this significant a change to the supply chain since the mid-20th century. “And so, it’s really affecting the entire system. It’s really shaking the entire infrastructure,” he said.
Last month, the U.S. Supreme Court heard a pivotal case to determine whether Trump’s tariffs are constitutional under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which the president has used to justify several of the tariffs he’s already imposed on foreign goods. The justices are slated to release a decision on the case by the end of June, but Hafezi says the administration will continue to impose tariffs regardless of the outcome.
“The president does have other strengths and tools to use tariffs,” he said. “So, I don’t believe a tariff issue will go away. It’s just how tariffs are used and what section and what articles are used to be able to impose those.”
Many promo companies have responded to Trump’s sweeping tariffs by onshoring or nearshoring manufacturing activities. But Hafezi advises companies to consider how much they’re actually saving by making such changes. For example, businesses that reinvest in U.S. manufacturing will only save if they invest in automation in their factories because “the cost of labor is dramatically different in the U.S. than [it is] somewhere else, and the automation factor is where you get that competitive advantage,” he said.
He also noted that nearshoring to Canada or Mexico may seem like a good idea but remains risky given current trade discussions and challenges.
“We are also in a trade war with Canada and Mexico, and there’s a massive amount of uncertainty,” Hafezi said. “So even if you want to engage in that, you don’t know what’s going to happen tomorrow.”
Key Takeaways
• ASI Media Digital News Editor Tara Lerman spoke with Babak Hafezi, CEO of Hafezi Capital and professor at American University, about the impact of tariffs on promo.
• Current tariffs are disrupting supply chains at a level not seen since the 1930s-40s, impacting manufacturing, logistics and pricing across industries.
• The Supreme Court is reviewing whether Trump’s tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act are constitutional.
• Even if narrowed, tariffs will persist through other mechanisms like quotas or anti-dumping rules.
• Strategic recommendations for promo businesses include quantifying tariff exposure with dashboards, flexible pricing architecture to renegotiate contracts, supply chain diversification, engaging in public commentary to influence policy and communicating risks to boards.
• Even if tariffs vanish tomorrow, prices will likely remain elevated due to established pricing power, said Hafezi.
• Persistent uncertainty will deter major investments and alter global trade relationships, requiring brand rebuilding for U.S. products.