Promo doesn’t operate on an island of its own.

Marketplace factors like inflation, employment and, most broadly, the general direction of the economy can all impact the revenue and profit performance of promotional products companies. With that in mind, here’s a stat-driven look at where things stand on those important issues – and where they may be headed.

Economic Outlook

So far, it’s been the recession that isn’t, so to speak.

Widespread predictions that a recession would occur in 2023 have to date proved incorrect. Gross domestic product in the United States increased 2.1% in the second quarter after rising 2.2% in Q1. Q3’s numbers are due out later this month.

Will the downturn ever come? The jury is still out.

Some like Bloomberg and Fannie Mae think a recession is in the cards. Factors like possible slower consumer spending, labor strikes, the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, a tough housing market, and more could sink GDP, some analysts say. Even so, economists at the Federal Reserve are predicting a so-called “Goldilocks Scenario”: no recession, falling inflation and flat unemployment.

2.1%
Predicted annual U.S. economic growth in 2023 from the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) latest forecast in October. That’s a 0.3 percentage point increase over the previous forecast.

1.5%
Forecasted growth rate of the U.S. economy in 2024 from the IMF. That’s a 0.5 percentage point hike over a prior prediction.

2.2%
Fannie Mae’s most recent prediction for U.S. gross domestic product growth in 2023, up from a previous forecast of 1.9%.

61%
of economists say there’s a less than 50% probability of recession in the U.S. in the next 12 months.

39%
of economists believe there’s a more than 50% chance of a recession in the next 12 months. More than half of those expect the downturn to begin in Q1 2024.

The Employment Picture

336,000
Number of jobs the U.S. economy added in September, the strongest month-over-month gain since January and far above economists’ predictions of 170,000.

3.8%
The unemployment rate in the U.S. in September. That held steady, remaining near historic lows.

119,000
more jobs were added to the U.S. economy in July and August than previously accounted for, the Labor Department determined this month.

266,000
Average monthly payroll growth in the U.S. over the summer.

96,000
Number of jobs added in the leisure and hospitality industry in September. That was the most of any sector.

Perspective: “The U.S. labor market clearly still has some gas in the tank.” Nick Bunker, head of economic research job site Indeed

The Inflation Situation

Inflation hit a 40-year high last summer.

Consider too: The producer price index, which measures prices charged by manufacturers, farmers and wholesalers, rose 8.5% in September 2022 compared to September 2021. The consumer price index – which tracks what consumers pay – was up 8.2% annually that same month.

While prices are continuing to rise at rates faster than what the Federal Reserve would like, they’re doing so at a much slower pace compared to the same time last year, as these stats show.

2.2%
Year-over-year rate of increase in the producer price index in September 2023 – the steepest such rise since April but near the 2% rate the Federal Reserve is targeting.

2.7%
The percentage increase in the producer price index, excluding food and energy prices, in this September as measured against the same month last year.

3.7%
Rate of increase in the consumer price index in September 2023 compared to September 2022.

4.1%
Year-over-year rise in the consumer price index in September 2023 when excluding volatile food and energy prices.

Perspective: “The Fed can for sure claim progress on inflation, but they definitely can’t claim victory.” Lara Rhame, chief U.S. economist at FS Investments

(Sources: National Association for Business Economics; U.S. Labor Department)