After many months of lockdowns and restrictions, Canada enters its next phase of virus recovery: allowing businesses to welcome back customers, along with vaccination passports across most of the country. At more than 70%, the vaccination rate in Canada is one of the world’s highest. And yet, the people there are bracing for a fourth wave as hospitalization rates uptick.

Add skyrocketing inflation — the highest in almost 20 years — as well as unprecedented supply chain disruption and uncertain event plans, and Canada is facing a storm of obstacles to recovery that’s proving difficult to contend with.

Across Canada, unemployment stands at 7%, slightly higher than the U.S. rate, while job openings number in the hundreds of thousands, particularly in the service sector. More than half of business owners (55%) say they just can’t find enough workers.

That’s affecting recovery and morale, which is especially frustrating as businesses head into the all-important fourth quarter. But even in the face of so much ambiguity about what the future holds, promo experts in Canada remain cautiously optimistic.

In this discussion on Twitter Spaces, Digital Content Director Vin Driscoll hosted Sara Lavenduski, executive editor of digital content and editor of PromoGram Canada for ASI Media, and Canadians Kathy Cheng, founder and president of Redwood Classics Apparel (asi/81627) in Toronto; Danny Braunstein, the Winnipeg-based director of client success for BAMKO (asi/131431) in Canada; and Russell Bird, owner of The Promo Addict (asi/302225) in Sherwood Park, AB. The panelists shared their insights on Canada’s reopening, the state of the economy there and their predictions for the fourth quarter.

“At this point, we’re doing decent,” said Cheng. “We’ve been steady, and we’ve been busy the entire time. … Everything is made in Canada, so relative to some of the other suppliers in our channel, our delivery and turnaround has been much quicker.”

Although the panelists are seeing opportunity, challenges such as supply chain delays, staff shortages and inflation stand in the way of a full industry and economic recovery. It’s creating a perfect storm of concerns that’s leading to promo customers continuing to play it safe.

“The supply chain issue is the worst I’ve ever seen,” said Braunstein. “I expect it will get worse before it improves. The uncertainty around the delta variant is definitely creating planning headaches. Ultimately, it’s leading to hesitation in event planning and return to work plans. So, we’re certainly seeing some headwinds at the moment.”

“We really stormed back at the end [of 2020]. I’m predicting much of the same for this year. We’ve seen bright spots through August and September. I think that trend will continue.” – Russell Bird, The Promo Addict

Moving forward, promo companies will have to remain agile as the situation on the ground continues to play out. “It’s a fluid situation,” said Cheng. “Between vaccination efficacy and health and safety mandates, it really varies by localized economies. In terms of opportunities, buying and supporting local is still strong. We’ve realized we need to support each other.”

With the challenges in mind, the panelists still expressed cautious optimism for the fourth quarter and early 2022. “Last year, we had the best Q4 in company history,” said Bird. “We really stormed back at the end. I’m predicting much of the same for this year. We’ve seen bright spots through August and September. I think that trend will continue. People will retry [for a return to the office] in the new year, and they’re going to plan bigger.”