After months of strict pandemic lockdowns, a possible third wave of COVID in Ontario is putting the province’s economic recovery into jeopardy.

An increase in positive cases (including variants) and hospitalizations has officials worried that the country’s largest province is seeing conditions worsen once again, a situation compounded by a notoriously slow vaccine rollout.

“We’re in the third wave,” said Dr. David Williams, Ontario’s chief medical officer, during a press conference this week. “We’re now starting to see impacts on our hospital rates, our ICU admissions are up again, our hospital admissions are up again.”

At a mass vaccine clinic in Toronto this week, Ontario Premier Doug Ford said a third wave would be “absolutely terrible,” and that people needed to be cautious and follow protocols.

“It’s absolutely critical that we do this because none of us want to go back to another lockdown,” he said, adding that officials are keeping a very close eye on numbers.

Only a few weeks ago, the province had lifted its stay-at-home order, but vaccine distribution has remained slow. Last week, Canada and the U.S. reached an agreement under which Canada will receive 1.5 million doses of the U.S.’s AstraZeneca vaccine, which it’s stockpiling while it awaits FDA approval. But officials are still concerned that distribution won’t keep pace with already-mounting cases. Spread could be exacerbated by Passover and Easter gatherings over the coming weeks.

Alberta too is seeing an increase in cases, many of them the B.1.1.7 variant. It’s putting a pause on reopening measures, though it has yet to declare an official third wave. “Half of those who are in a hospital bed for COVID are under the age of 65 and almost 90% of those in an ICU for COVID are under 65,” said Tyler Shandro, health minister for Alberta, during a press conference this week. “Most of them wouldn’t be there if they had been vaccinated at this time.”

Dr. Abdu Sharkawy, an infectious disease specialist and assistant professor of medicine at the University of Toronto, said this week that a “perfect storm” of virus variants combined with slow vaccine distribution made a third wave inevitable.

“This is pretty much the trap that this pandemic has proven its ability to present to us,” he said on CTV’s Your Morning. “That’s why we call them waves; you get lulled into a sense of complacency and then cases start picking up.” He added that, until the province receives enough vaccines, another lockdown is likely.

Just two weeks ago, Dr. Sharkawy tweeted, his hospital considered closing its COVID unit because of low case numbers. Those plans are now on hold as patient numbers steadily increase.

Exactly 2 weeks ago, we briefly considered closing the Covid unit in our hospital. Today we have TWO active teams, nearing 20 patients, many whom are young & previously healthy. The 3rd wave may be the most sobering of them all. Really hope it's the last. pic.twitter.com/rAi9nAtqYx

— Abdu Sharkawy (@SharkawyMD) March 22, 2021

The news of a possible third wave comes as the government grapples with a high price tag on COVID economic aid. The Canada Recovery Benefit, which offers $2,000 a month to the unemployed, was initially estimated to cost $6.3 billion (Canadian) by the end of March. At the end of February, it had soared past that number to $11.1 billion. Unemployment is now nearly 10%.

Meanwhile, the promo industry in Canada has already struggled through multiple lockdowns. Amanda Dudek, owner of A Dudek Promotions (asi/101207) in Maple, ON, said they barely had time to acknowledge the good news of decreasing cases after the second wave before approaching a third. “As more vaccinations are administered, there’s a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel,” she said, “but I don’t imagine things will be ramping up until early fall at the earliest, hopefully.”

It’s been a long road, said Kate Plummer, vice president of sales and marketing at Clearmount (asi/45440) in Scarborough, ON, and news of a third wave is the last thing anyone wants to hear. Just as cautious reopening began after the second lockdown, another one seems likely.

“This is a really long time for the city to be under lockdown,” she said. “You can see the frustration of staff, clients and other suppliers, and I’m worried about the long-term effects on mental health and the health of businesses. The stress is also compounded with seeing the speed that the U.S. has been getting their vaccinations out. We’ll catch up at some point, but having timelines like September are hard when the U.S. is given early May.”

With pandemic stress and uncertainty continuing, promo end-buyers are still looking for recognition items to acknowledge hard-working employees and loyal customers. Guy Malk, chief marketing officer at St Regis Group Canada (asi/84595) in Markham, ON, said drinkware and barware products continue to make ideal remote work gifts; its curated “work from home” items page is its most popular, based on website analytics.

“We’ve adapted to this environment fairly well over the last year,” Malk said. “Sales reps are hosting virtual meetings and attending virtual shows. We expect this to continue through the summer with the hope that most of Canada and the U.S. will be vaccinated by then. I’m still naively hoping we don’t have to go through a third shutdown, but it looks like the numbers are dictating otherwise.”

For Brand Blvd (asi/145124) in St. Catharines, ON, with so many unknowns, the plan is to stay the course. It will continue to streamline its fulfillment, kitting and web store capabilities to diversify and keep up with demand, which has helped the team see a sales increase of about 30% compared to this time last year.

“With two lockdowns already under our belt, we’ve learned and adapted, so we’re a lot more confident than we were a year ago,” marketing manager Angela Jamieson said. “If another one’s implemented, we’re prepared and ready. Plus, with vaccinations on the horizon, we see the light at the end of the tunnel. It’s important now more than ever to maintain camaraderie and make sure our people feel appreciated.”

Dudek is looking ahead to the coming months and planning her strategy, assuming that the country will begin opening on the other side of a third wave.

“I’m hopeful that new opportunities will present themselves over the course of the coming quarters leading into the holiday season,” Dudek said. “They’ll be contingent on the opening of the economy, loosening of restrictions and number of Ontarians vaccinated. As we slowly and cautiously reopen and interact more and more in person, there will be new giveaway ideas for clients.”

But all the compounded stress of nearly a year of lockdowns is taking its toll. “To be honest, I was all about pivoting and looking for opportunity this whole pandemic, but right now, I’m just tired,” Plummer said. “I’m seeing burnout from everyone, and it’s hard to be unaffected by the stress. I miss spontaneity, people and having a casualness to my life. The hits seem to just keep coming.”