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Stat Spotlight: Has Inflation Peaked?

These quick-hit statistics show that inflation may finally be easing.

When it comes to inflation, the United States is not out of the woods yet. But recently released federal data – along with the analysis from a growing number of economists – suggests that inflation may have peaked.

While prices at retail and wholesale remain elevated and again rose year over year, the rate at which annual increases are occurring is decelerating and there have been recent month-over-month declines. Variables like potentially escalating oil prices could possibly reignite greater price leaps, but the stats below indicate that inflation may have already reached its zenith.

0.5%
The month-over-month decline in wholesale prices in the U.S. between December and November as determined by the Producer Price Index, which measures how much businesses pay for goods and services. The decline was the biggest on a monthly basis since April 2020.

(Labor Department)


6.2%
The rate at which wholesale/supply-side prices increased year over year in December. While up, the reading marked the slowest pace of increase since March 2021.

(Labor Department)

Nancy Tengler

Perspective: “Inflation will continue to roll over. We believe inflation peaked in June. The rise and fall of inflation is mostly symmetrical. It took 16 months to peak and now we expect it will take a like amount of time to get to a tolerable level.”Nancy Tengler, CEO and chief investment officer, Laffer Tengler Investments.
6.5%
is how much the Consumer Price Index, which tracks how much consumers pay in the marketplace, rose year over year in December 2022. This was the smallest annual increase since October 2021.

(Labor Department)


0.1%
The month-over-month decline in the Consumer Price Index in December.

(Labor Department)


calendar iconThe rate of year-over-year consumer product price increases has decelerated for six consecutive months.

(Labor Department)


Rubeela Farooqi

Perspective: While inflation may be easing – good news for consumers and businesses in the promotional products industry and beyond – analysts still expect the Fed to continue interest rate increases. “With prices still rising at a pace that is well above target, rates will need to move higher, to a more restrictive stance.”Rubeela Farooqi, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, to The Wall Street Journal