Officials in California, where more promotional products sales occur than any other state except for Texas, have lifted a stay-at-home order.

The move was welcomed by struggling businesses and certain promo pros, who feel the loosening of COVID-related restrictions will help spur some business. Still, most believe there’ll be no large-scale sales surge until vaccinations inoculate broad swaths of the population against the coronavirus and events return en masse.

With indications that the latest and worst outbreak of COVID-19 in the Golden State is starting to retreat, Gov. Gavin Newsom on Monday, Jan. 25, issued an order that allows restaurants to serve diners outdoors. Hair and nail salons can reopen indoors, retailers can have more shoppers in stores, and certain youth sports competitions may resume.

“We’re seeing a flattening of the curve,” Newsom said a virtual press conference. “Everything that should be up is up, everything that should be down is down – case rates, positivity rates, hospitalizations, ICUs.”

We are not out of the woods, although trends are heading in the right directions.

Most of our counties are in Purple - the most restrictive tier.

This pandemic remains deadly - more so now than ever.

We must all do our part. Wear a mask. Save lives. Stop the spread. https://t.co/3BXOmNr77R

— Office of the Governor of California (@CAgovernor) January 25, 2021

While the stay-at-home order has been lifted, California will still implement societal restrictions based on a four-tiered, color-coded system. First introduced in August, the system designates risk levels to regions based on the number of coronavirus cases in the area and rates of positive test results for the virus.

While restrictions remain in place, some promo pros are heartened to see a broader opening of the economy, saying it could help with business.

Kimberly Karp, owner of San Francisco-based distributor KK Promotions, noted that she’s feeling upbeat about opportunities with restaurants, which could be increasingly eager to market now that they’re legally allowed to host guests again, even if only outside. “I’ve had several restaurant orders,” said Karp, adding she’s provided branded blankets that can be used by restaurants’ outdoor guests.

Still, some in promo think lifting the stay-at-home order will not lead to any great increase in promotional products business in the Golden State. “It will have very little practical effect,” said Craig Nadel, president of Los Angeles-based Top 40 distributor Jack Nadel International (asi/279600). “Many counties and cities had been doing their own thing already anyway.”

Brandon Kennedy, owner of Bakersfield, CA-based Proforma Progressive Marketing (asi/300094), said his company has defied the odds and managed to increase sales 6% in January 2021 compared to January 2020, even with the strict stay-at-home order in place. Orchestrating appreciation initiatives for clients’ employees has been one notable avenue of business, he said.

Kennedy, like others, is hopeful that the removal of the stay-at-home order will help breathe more life into California’s economy, which could ultimately have a trickle-down effect for promo firms. Nonetheless, it’s going to take more than that to restore the promo industry to pre-pandemic levels, he said.

“We won’t see any type of major impact directly related to promo sales or normalcy until vaccines are distributed and people are told that it’s safer to travel, meet and congregate again,” Kennedy opined. “Once large-scale sporting events and concerts return, and amusement parks reopen, then I think we’ll start seeing traditional promotional products sales returning in a big way.”

California is the most populated state in the nation. In 2019, the most recent year for which numbers are available, promo products sales in California tallied $2.1 billion, according to ASI research. Only Texas, at $3.4 billion, posted greater promo sales.