Earlier this fall I visited a friend who I hadn’t seen since before the pandemic. We were catching up and he asked how things have been. I was honest with him: Busy. Really, really, choice-use-of-a-curse-word busy.

To illustrate my point, this is just a sampling of my family’s calendar this fall and winter: Kids’ soccer. Swim practices. Hebrew school and synagogue events. Fall festivals. Several kids’ birthday parties and multiple holiday parties. Back-to-school night, parent-teacher conferences and the winter holiday concert. At one point during the fall, there were four consecutive weekends where friends or family were visiting from out of town.

A late-summer Phillies-Mets game was just the start of my busy fall.

From my conversations with other people, I know we’re not the only family with a hectic schedule. (Though admittedly my focus group of young suburban parents with active kids is a bit narrow.) And none of what I listed is particularly remarkable or out of the ordinary; we weren’t dashing off to Europe for a long weekend.

But that’s precisely the point. In 2020, everything stopped. In 2021, things slowly started to come back. In 2022? Everything returned. This is how it was in the “before” times.

Why do I bring this up? Because I think this is the secret behind promo’s stellar 2022 – and my optimism for the industry in the coming year.

The promo industry respectively grew 5.4%, 13.5% and 12.4% in the first three quarters of 2022. The growth in Q2 and Q3 was particularly impressive given rampant inflation, looming recession fears and lingering inventory and staffing concerns.

Most notable to me, however, is which companies experienced that growth. Our data from ASI Research tells the story. In 2021, large distributors of $1 million and more in revenue grew their sales by just over 14%. Meanwhile, small distributors of $250K and less in revenue grew their sales by about half that amount: 7%.

Now compare it to the most recent quarter, Q3 2022. (Our Q4 and full-year 2022 industry sales data will be released early next year.) While large distributors were up 14%-15%, small distributors grew their sales by 12%. The gap shrunk.

That makes sense to me. During the pandemic, larger distributors were able to buy PPE at scale and pivot to other services and lucrative markets. Smaller distributors, meanwhile, remained closely tied to their local buyers and communities – the entities that struggled the hardest and longest.

Now? Live events are back. More specifically, local events are back. Every school, non-profit, local government, small business, religious organization, etc. that hesitated to put on an event in 2020 or 2021 had no such reservations this year. At the many such gatherings I attended this year, ad nauseam I heard, “This is the first _____ we’ve had in three years!” Feel free to fill in the blank with whatever you can think of.

What did I see at all these celebrations and gatherings? Giveaways. Swag. Merch. Local events need promotional products. Just to cite a few examples from my own life:

• To celebrate our first full in-person Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur services since 2019, the synagogue my family belongs to gave out imprinted silicon bracelets.

L'Shana Tova! My synagogue gave out these colorful (and self-centering) bracelets for Rosh Hashanah, with the promise of an accompanying bracelet in 10 days for Yom Kippur. pic.twitter.com/T6jFoaYIAE

— C.J. Mittica (@CJ_ASIMedia) September 27, 2022

• The Fall Festivals were a wealth of giveaways – branded tote bags, fun buttons, colorful toys like frisbees, informational pamphlets, etc. – thanks to exhibiting local vendors.

The Kaiserman JCC Fall Festival was full of games and activities for kids – and plenty of giveaways.

• Swim meets welcomed fans back this season, which prompted my wife to buy a logoed cap and tank top to cheer our kids on from the stands.
• And our first ASI Media department outing in two years took place at a local go-kart raceway and arcade, where a certain editor did his best Ricky Bobby impression and took home a swanky medal for his need for speed.

If you ain't first, you're last. Check out the sweet promo spoils from my first place victory in Go-Kart racing at our editorial department outing yesterday. And even better is ... pic.twitter.com/S4HDMZ6BTs

— C.J. Mittica (@CJ_ASIMedia) September 29, 2022

This was one of the secrets of promo’s resilience in 2022, and why it exceeded expectations.

Looking ahead to 2023, economic concern continues to hover, with fears of a recession and consumer pullback. Stress remains high in the industry, and people are worn out going from one crisis to the next. I’m not promising 2023 will be a banner year. But what I believe is that the continued return of events – from major trade shows to small local gatherings – will steady the industry against any significant headwinds. It’s the guaranteed soft landing that wasn’t there two years ago.

I will concede that once the new year starts, there may be a bit of a hangover as events ramp back up. After all the holiday mingling, perhaps people simply won’t be ready to jump back into in-person gatherings, and – What’s that? ASI Orlando starts on January 4? Awesome! We’ll see you there!

Get ready for a very busy 2023.